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The Dunning-Kruger Effect Explained: Why Incompetent People Think They’re Experts
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The revenge of the East: The end of West Germany has finally come
The establishment’s defeats in eastern regional elections mark more than a party crisis
Published 21 Sep, 2026 21:25 | Updated 21 Sep, 2026 23:18
Tarik Cyril Amar
By Tarik Cyril Amar, a historian from Germany working at Koç University, Istanbul, on Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe, the history of World War II, the cultural Cold War, and the politics of memory
@tarikcyrilamar
tarikcyrilamar.substack.com
tarikcyrilamar.com
The revenge of the East: The end of West Germany has finally come
A protester holds a placard outside the headquarters of the German Christian Democrats (CDU) on October 21, 2025 in Berlin, Germany. © Maja Hitij/Getty Images
Occasionally, history does dish out poetic justice. It can also be exceedingly funny, if in a merciless way. Germany’s well-known tragedy – or let’s say, one of them – is that it suffers from a chronic deficiency of irony, so many Germans will fail to see the funny side of what has just happened. And yet, there is something very deserved as well as ironic about the recent catastrophe of the country’s establishment parties in three turning-point regional elections – in Saxony-Anhalt, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and Berlin.
The stunning successes of the new-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in two of them (Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) have attracted most attention. And rightly so: For one thing, any remaining establishment delusions about marginalizing the AfD out of German politics using a “firewall” are now where they have belonged for a very long time: on the trash heap of history. The last desperate firewalling efforts may continue for a little longer here and there, but it’s a Zombie now: not only ugly and brainless but dead to boot.
While German mainstream media can’t stop fretting and hyperventilating about “democracy-in-danger,” in reality, the end of the “firewall” – that is, a systematic discrimination cartel against a legal party – is, obviously, a very good thing for genuine democracy. Because the “firewall” policy was an insult to the latter, as it de facto partially disenfranchised the voters of Germany’s most popular party.
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And while the “Die Linke” (The Left) party that has won in Berlin is really a semi-establishment party and has not been subject to a firewall but rather helped built it against the AfD, its victory in the capital still also amounts to a great setback for the older mainstream parties.
However, there are other important aspects of the three political earthquakes that have just shaken Germany’s establishment. Most importantly, both parties that make up Germany’s ruling coalition – the mainstream conservatives (CDU) and the centrist social democrats (SPD) have suffered humiliating, and in the case of the CDU even crushing, defeats.
In Berlin, the SPD was trounced so badly it ended up in fifth place. With the city is historically associated with SPD giants such as Ernst Reuter and Willy Brandt, everyone agrees that this is a disaster that may well end the political career of its local candidate.In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, it is true, the regional SPD leader, Manuela Schwesig, ruthlessly distanced herself from her own party and was rewarded with second place. Not first place, because that went to the AfD. Schwesig’s defeat is now being sold as a success. That tells you much about how desperate the establishment is.
And then there is the CDU. What’s left to say, really? Historically, the CDU was the founding party of postwar (West) Germany, when it was led by a genius of political cunning and hardheaded realism, Konrad Adenauer. Since then, while it has, of course, not always been in charge in first Bonn and then Berlin, the CDU (with its Bavarian cousin CSU, strictly speaking) has been Germany’s default ruling party.
Now, for the first time in its history, the CDU has failed so abysmally that it is no longer represented in a regional parliament: In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Adenauer’s once proud party which has morphed into Friedrich Merz’s unmerry band of stragglers has not cleared the five percent barrier and is out. The significance of this debacle cannot be overestimated, even if this is a regional result and not (yet) a national one.
There are plenty of rumors about the fate of Friedrich Merz, the obstinate chancellor of catastrophe and probably the greatest single loser in postwar German history (yes, beating even Erich Honecker). Yet those speculations are much less interesting than something generally overlooked. Which brings us back to why this is also a very funny moment of poetic justice in German history: The CDU has not been knocked out just anywhere, but in the former East Germany, which is also where the AfD has triumphed and shattered the “firewall.”
RT
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz speaks at the annual congress of the German Trade Union Confederation on May 12, 2026 in Berlin, Germany. © Sean Gallup/Getty Images
This is capital-H History in the making. Because it is about much more than just an irreversible fiasco for the CDU; it also goes beyond the wider decline and fall of Germany’s establishment parties and their political, media, and cultural ecosystem. What is really happening now, at long last, is the end of West Germany. Unlike the former East Germany, the GDR, West Germany did not really end with reunification in 1990. On the contrary, where the two Cold War Germanies could have come together fraternally to devise a new political home, that chance of national lifetime was missed with gusto, and instead West Germany simply took over East Germany: inside Germany as well, the Cold War ended not with a genuine new beginning but with the West seeking to impose its ways on the East.
Germany’s age of political stability is ending
Read more Germany’s age of political stability is ending
The united Germany that emerged was, in many ways – and all ways that mattered – West Germany writ large. The fact that ex-chancellor Angela Merkel was from the East made as little difference to this extreme lopsidedness as US President Barak Obama’s blackness made to the persistence of racism in America. In the East, the resulting – and very plausible – resentment became a key ingredient in the AfD’s massive success. That success and the simultaneous regional collapse of the CDU, the party that embodied and, in effect, claimed to represent the essence of West German identity, now marks the beginning of the end of this period of German history.
Not much more than one generation after unification ended Cold War East Germany, West Germany’s time is finally up as well. For those in the former East Germany who were promised “flourishing landscapes” by yet another CDU icon, “Chancellor-of-Unity” Helmut Kohl, but got persisting national second-class status instead, this may well feel like richly deserved payback for a Western establishment that has cheated and used and, at best, looked down on them.
West Germany’s impending end is good news, in principle, even for the many Germans still anxiously stuck in their dated West German mindset who cannot understand this yet. At the same time, there also is great danger ahead: The process of finally shedding the old and ill-fitting skin of a West Germany designed as a Cold War client state has begun, but the political and psychological resistance will be great and perhaps even violent. West Germany’s ghost will leave history, but it may still do much harm on the way out.
In mare, ce s-a intamplat in Germania post unificare, s-a intamplat in UE. Vestul a luat estul prozonier. Nu l-a pus la aceeasi masa, l-a tinut in cotet si l-a scos la aer doar cand a avut nevoie sa-i faca treburile murdare si sa-i care tucalul.
Din acest motiv orice discutie, dezbatere despre suveranism trebuie obligatoriu sa includa tema RO-Exit. Cat timp nici un partid din Romania nu abordeaza fatis si cu curaj aceasta tema, rezulta ca in Romania nu exista partide suveraniste. Toti se lupta exclusiv pentru ciolan. End of story.
Eu am facut tot ce am putut sa va deschid ochii. De aici inainte nu mai e treaba mea. Fiecare are drepul sa faca cum il taie capul.
S a cam prins lumea cam care e treaba cu aceste partide. Niște indicii erau chiar de la apariție, însă acum nu cred că mai sunt mulți care să aibă îndoieli.
E la fel de evident că establishment ul ue nu acționează numai din prostie, oricât de caricaturali ar fi panaramele alea care au pretenții de conducători.
Ar fi bine să se pună problema Ro exit. După mizeria cu interzicerea exportului de ovine, nu doar fermierii, toată lumea trebuia să fie la miting și să strige Ro exit.
Doar că nu prea se poate. Nădejdea noastră este să se scufunde încet sandramaua ue și cu ocazia asta să scăpăm și noi.
Cât despre articol, hop și un migrator, să i curgă balele că un mare polis sau un regat sau o cetate sau o civilizație stă să cadă. Înapoi în munții Altai!
Iote ce zice lumea.
https://ddwall.blogspot.com/2026/09/dovada-cu-ai-ul-in-sinteza-programului.html
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Theater of Mass Illusion: How the Dictatorship Disguised Itself as Democracy – Nietzsche
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Deci cacanaru’ asta de Siegfried are in program un Minister al Adevarului , impanat , bineinteles cu bouleni de la USR . Ne lipseau tare bouleni pe langa paduchenii deja in activitate frenetica :” Ba , tu ce crezi” Ce vezi , sau ce-ti spunem noi !”
Vasilica e doar o scula proasta. In mod normal n-ai nevoie de un minister al adevarului, majoritatea oamenilor sunt suficient de spalati pe creier si cred ce le spun autoritatile. Ca-n plandemie. Dar azi situatia s-a schimbat, liderii europeni sun disperati, blocati ideologic si au produs doar gunoi. Disperarea duce la masuri disperate. Si pentru a-si mentine fotoliile si privilegile sunt in stare de orice. Inclusiv sa ne trimita la razboi. De peste doua sute de ani Rusia este the best Bogeyman.
Fara suparare, pe mine a ajuns sa ma dispere naivitatea celor care inca isi inchipuie ca alegerile anticipate si chiar si votul in general ar putea genera rezultate pozitive pentru ‘ulime. Interzicerea candidaturii Dianei Sosoaca, anularea alegerilor, interzicerea candidaturii lui CG si extragerea din palarie a lui Nicusor la ordinele occidentului, sunt suficiente dovezi. Pentru conformitate, Mark Twain: daca votul nostru ar conta, nu ne-ar lasa sa votam si doi, tov sociolog de talie internationala, pe numele sau Ioseb Besarionis Dze Jugashvili: nu conteaza cine voteaza, conteaza cine numara voturile. Bai, mai vreti si desene ca sa pricepeti? Sistemul functioneaza uns si nimeni si nimic nu se poate opune.
Facă-se anticipate pentru a se termina mai repede cu provizoratele guvernamentale și a se termina și cu discuțiile sterile de prin mass media!
Între timp, Țuțuianu de la AEP-ul a și întocmit legea și metodologia de organizare a alegerilor anticipate.
În rest jurnaliștii avizi de știri publică toate năzdrăvăniile fără a avea surse verificate. Ca la noi, la nimeni!
Sa nu sarim din baie! In RO este extrem de greu sa organizezi alegeri anticipate. Constitutia e suficient de neclara. Si a fost special redactata astfel. Si oricum nimeni n-o respecta. Parerea mea personala e ca nu exista nici o sansa de a se organiza alegeri anticipate. Dar hai sa zicem ca s-ar organiza. In primul rand se discuta la nivel de UE crearea unui cordon sanitar si interzicerea partidelor suveraniste la alegeri. Doi, in Romania nu exista partide suveraniste. Nici un lider de partid al asa-ziselor partide suveraniste nu discuta subiectul RO-exit. E tabu si baietii n-au suficient sange in instalatie pentru ca oricum sunt creatii artificiale ale manastirii. Best case scenario, din eventualele alegeri anticipate vor iesi din palarie aceleasi Jeane coafate diferit. Cat timp esti prizonier in chingile UE, directia actuala se mentine. Deci, oricum n-are importanta cum il cheama pe Gigelul de la Victoria, tramvaiul e pe sine, nu poseda volan ca sa o intoarca la 180 de grade si nici Reverse gear nu are. Alegerile anticipate ar fi doar pierdere de vreme si de bani. In cel mai bun caz un spectacol pentru naivi.
Sistemul politic din Romania nu este un sistem politic in sensul clasic. Nici un partid politic nu are in spate o masa specifica suficient de mare de sustinatori. Recte PSD sa aiba in spate muncitorimea si intelectualitatea de stanga, PNL sa aiba in spate clasa de mijloc, antreprenorii si intelectualii de dreapta, etc. Pentru ca nu mai avem nici muncitorime nici clasa de mijloc. Din motive economice. Cat priveste intelectualitatea, a devenit mercenara si fara convingeri solide. Bazele din societate sunt minore, cum ar fi cativa zanatici care sustin USR, o parte a comunitatii maghiare care sustine UDMR, o mica parte de exlatati si dacopati care sustin AUR. In rest, majoritatea populatiei e sastisita, nu mai are incredere in sistem si in general prezinta mari dureri in locul nebatut de soare. Principala preocupare a majoritatii romanilor si in special a tinerilor fara perspective, a ajuns sa fie impuscarea francului. Restul sunt povesti.
Din aceasta perspectiva, partidele din Romania sun creatii artificiale, in majoritate cu capatul lantului in paduri. Padurile avand si ele capatul lantului prin codrii indepartati. Competitia e viciata din start. Totul e butaforie.
intr o tara in care s au anulat alegeri aflate in desfasurare, aceasta …unanimitate, ca pina si guvernul muresan spune ca inca n are voturile necesare investirii, e suspecta :)))
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nu poti afirma ca …’pierdem vremea, guvernul muresan nu va fi investit’ intr o tara in care alegeri aflate in desfasurare s au anulat, e de bun-simt sa nu te hazadezi :))
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guvernul muresan poate fi votat …in orice tara depe lumea asta, cu acelasi succes cu care in tara aia se pot anula alegeri aflate in desfasurare
daca in tara aia se pot anula alegeri aflate in desfasurare …pocnind din deste, atunci tot asa, pocnind din deste, poate fi votat si un guvern muresan
astfel ro ….devine un banal caz particular :)))